Cameras off, accidents up?

In today’s Times, David Aaronovitch (p 19) concludes that the demise of speed cameras will increase road casualties – a reasonable conclusion given academic evidence that, even allowing for regression to the mean, cameras do reduce accidents.
The TaxPayers Alliance disagrees, arguing that the fall in casualties began long before cameras were introduced, and their arrival actually slowed the decline. RoadPeace calls this argument “biased and botched”. Apart from the points made by RoadPeace, the TPA's analysis is based on road casualty data, not normally statistics to be relied upon. See this earlier article on Straight Statistics for the reasons why.

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